Impact of Wars on Aluminium Prices: An Empirical Study: 16-Mar’26

Historical Price Movements in Aluminium During Major Wars and Implications for the Current Conflict:

Historical wars (since 1982) and its impact on Aluminium prices:

The vertical lines shows the starting point of wars and the post-war price movement highlighted with ellipses in red-colour, which are tabulated in the first table.

Observations:

• Price witnessed a high volatility few months before the start dates of wars and continued for next couple of months.
• The trend prior to war has continued even after the start of war for a maximum period of 2 to 3 months and then witnessed a notable trend-reversal for the medium- to long-term.
• The mean and median magnitude of moves are 13.5% and 10.6% respectively. Measured from the close of prior day to the start of war, adding half standard deviation to the mean translates to the range between USD 3345 to USD 3688 and can attained in the 4 to 6 weeks(from the start date of the war i.e. 28-Feb’26).