Market Prices & Forecast
Executive Summary
- The Paper and Paperboard market experienced stable demand conditions in December 2025, marked by flat prices and mild movement in raw material prices, with overall improved market sentiment. Imported wastepaper prices inched slightly higher while domestic wastepaper prices have also increased by INR 1,000 per ton.
- From fundamental perspective, raw material availability improved meaningfully during H1 FY26. On a year-to-date basis, India’s recovered wastepaper imports increased by around 25% YoY, reflecting improved global supply dynamics. In the USA, domestic consumption of wastepaper anticipated to increase in the months ahead amid colder weather tightening availability. Collectively, these factors are expected to contribute to near-term pricing support for wastepaper and increase cost for domestic paper mills.
Critical Analytics
- Demand growth in the packaging paper segment continues to be underpinned by diversified end-use applications and the increasing shift toward recycled materials, reinforcing a structurally positive demand outlook. However, the anticipated rise in domestic supply driven by weak export performance of kraft paper introduces a potential imbalance. However, the growing use of secondary paper products may partially mitigate the loss of external demand.
- It is anticipated that the pickup in manufacturing of FMCG, beverages, consumer durables, and pharmaceuticals sector during January’26 is likely to be supported from packaging materials consumption growth. At the same time, a temporary tightening in wastepaper supply will provide near-term pricing support for paper and paperboards. However, the sustainability of this price momentum remains contingent on the persistence of supply constraints and the pace of demand recovery across these sectors.
Outlook: Kraft paper prices are likely to consolidate around the INR 33,500/ton level in the near term, with a gradual upside bias toward INR 34,500/ton by January 2026. The price trajectory is expected to be supported by a seasonal pickup in demand and improving downstream consumption trends.