Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • The Paper and Paperboard market in May’26 has started witnessing a mild correction after the sharp rally seen during March–April, as subdued demand and cautious procurement activity weighed on market sentiment. Kraft paper prices eased by around INR 0.5/kg across select mills, while duplex board prices remained firm due to elevated wastepaper and freight costs.
  • Imported wastepaper prices showed initial signs of stabilization, with US OCC prices easing slightly from April highs, supported by improved export availability from the US. At the same time, domestic wastepaper availability improved due to higher collection and slower mill procurement, helping input costs stabilize after the earlier sharp increase.
  • On the demand side, the market entered a weaker seasonal phase following the completion of FMCG and summer stocking demand. Higher paper prices, coupled with softer export demand and cautious buying behavior, have started impacting domestic consumption, especially in price-sensitive packaging segments. However, gradual recovery is expected in the second half of the year as supply conditions normalize and export opportunities improve.

Critical Analytics

  • Imported OCC price direction (USD 172–175/MT range) will be the key monitorable for June, as any further easing can accelerate kraft paper price correction across regions.
  • Domestic wastepaper collection during monsoon onset needs close tracking, as lower collection volumes could tighten supply and restrict downside in paper prices.
  • Demand recovery from FMCG, beverages, and packaging sectors will determine whether mills can sustain current price levels or continue volume-led corrections
  • China’s low-cost paper exports and excess capacity remain a structural risk to Indian mills, limiting pricing power in both domestic and export markets
  • Duplex board policy support through MIP extension remains a major factor to watch, as any relaxation could sharply increase import competition and pressure domestic prices

Outlook: Kraft paper prices expected to soften further by INR 1-1.5/Kg , with mills prioritizing volume over price. OCC range bound at USD 172-175/MT assuming no further Hormuz escalation. Duplex Board prices are likely to remain firm, supported by the continued extension of the Minimum Import Price (MIP) and stable domestic demand.

Monthly Report

Monthly Recording

[tg_video key=”2026/05/Paper-and-Paperboard-Monthly-Video-May-2026-1779865288.mp4″]