Market Prices & Forecast
Executive Summary
- The Paper and Paperboard market in March’26 reflects a transition from stable to cost-driven pricing, with recent firmness emerging due to rising freight costs and geopolitical disruptions impacting imported wastepaper supply chains.
- Prices remained largely stable through early 2026, with kraft paper showing slight firmness and duplex board stabilizing after earlier corrections; however, recent input cost escalation is beginning to push prices upward. Raw material trends indicate recovery, with imported OCC and domestic wastepaper prices moving upward, supported by improved mill demand and tightening supply conditions.
- Demand showed seasonal strength in JFM’26, driven by manufacturing activity across FMCG, beverages, and consumer segments, though a slight moderation is expected in AMJ’26 post peak-season demand. India’s continued dependence on imported fibre (~50%), along with rising freight and energy costs, keeps the market highly exposed to global supply dynamics and cost fluctuations.
Critical Analytics
- Freight rates & Baltic Dry Index (BDI): Sustained increase will directly elevate landed wastepaper costs and influence domestic price revisions
- Geopolitical risks (Red Sea / Hormuz routes): Key to tracking supply disruptions, insurance premiums, and shipment delays impacting imports
- Packaging demand indicators (FMCG, beverages, e-commerce, pharma): Core sectors driving paper demand; trends here will determine consumption outlook
- Energy and input cost trends (coal, freight, currency): Incremental cost pressures that can influence pricing decisions across mills
Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by elevated input costs, particularly imported wastepaper and freight. While demand may soften marginally in AMJ’26 following the peak season, limited downside is expected due to continued cost pressures. As supply conditions stabilize and demand recovers in JAS’26, prices are likely to trend upward gradually, supported by improved packaging demand and export opportunities, indicating a sustained cost-push driven pricing environment.